Foreign trade activity

Assessing the Sustainability of Regional Foreign Trade Complex (the Case of Germany’s Industrial Region – North Rhine-Westphalia)

DOI: 10.24412/2072-8042-2024-2-7-20

Author: Andrey Olegovich SOBOLEV,
Trade Representation of the Russian Federation in Germany , Trade Representative of the Russian Federation in Germany

Until last year, the growth of the German economy was largely based on the use of Russian energy resources. At the same time, Western sanctions have severely restricted foreign trade with the Russian Federation. Th is paper analyzes the sustainability and adaptation potential of foreign trade in North Rhine-Westphalia as one of the most industrialized regions of Germany using vector autoregression model. Th e results of the study show that the key factors aff ecting the foreign trade activity of North Rhine-Westphalia are manufacturing shipments and fi xed capital investment as well as labour force for the import variable. Th e modelling results reveal that this region was highly dependent on Russian energy resources, and a complete refusal to import them could lead to long-term economic consequences.

Russia as a Grain Exporter under New Conditions: Opportunities and Risks

DOI: 10.24412/2072-8042-2024-2-21-37

Author: Alla Andreyevna GRISHKOVA,
Candidate of Sciences in Economics , Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. Head of the Department of World Economy and International Business , Associate Professor

Th is article discusses topical issues related to the problems of Russia’s grain exports to foreign countries and ensuring Russia’s contribution to solving the problem of global food security under the new conditions. Particular attention is paid to Russia’s role in the global grain market and key importers of Russian products. Th e paper analyzes exports of domestic grain to foreign countries, separately considers the features of grain trade within the EAEU group, and outlines the principles for the use of customs and non-tariff measures in foreign trade operations. External and internal risks and promising directions for Russia to achieve its export potential as a grain supplier are highlighted.

World economy

Hydrogen Energy in ASEAN Countries

DOI: 10.24412/2072-8042-2024-2-38-54

Author: Galina Mikhailovna KOSTYUNINA,
Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor , MGIMO-University, Department of International Economic Relations and Foreign Economic Aff airs , Professor

The hydrogen market in ASEAN countries is still nascent. Of the 10 Member States, Indonesia, Malaysia and Th ailand account for three quarters of the regional hydrogen production, and Malaysia and Singapore are among the top twenty global exporters and importers of hydrogen. Many States have approved roadmaps and programs for hydrogen energy development, and Singapore has a National Hydrogen Strategy. Implementation of investment projects in partner countries continues, including the world’s fi rst hydrogen supply chain from Brunei to Japan, and the fi rst hydrogen production plant in Southeast Asia in Malaysia. The development of hydrogen energy in ASEAN countries faces many challenges, among which: lack of fi nancing for investment projects; high capital costs; weak government support; underestimation of the importance of hydrogen energy for transition to a low-carbon economy. All in all, despite the ongoing challenges, ASEAN countries have high potential, including resource potential, for the development of hydrogen energy and the transformation of the region into a global hydrogen hub.

Assessing the Impact of the Current World Economy Transformation on Russia’s Merchandise Trade

DOI: 10.24412/2072-8042-2024-2-55-77

Authors: Andrej Romanovich BOJKO,
The Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Aff airs , Postgraduate Student

Veronika Grigor`evna IORDANOVA,
Candidate of Economic Sciences , TTh e Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Aff airs, Associate Professor of the department of national economy

Nowadays, increased geopolitical and geo-economic instability aff ecting the economies of countries contributes to fragmentation of the world economy. Previously established economic ties are signifi cantly changing. These processes transform the world economic system formed in the late XX-early XXI centuries, one of the most important elements of which is international trade in goods. In such conditions, given the distinctive problems of Russia’s foreign merchandise trade, which most oft en include low diversifi cation of merchandise exports and high demand for a wide range of fi nished goods, the importance of eff ective assessment of the impact of the current world economy transformation on it increases. For this purpose, the paper uses the author’s method of extended SWOT analysis in order to quantify qualitative fi ndings. The obtained results make it possible to assess the impact of various groups of external and internal factors on Russia’s merchandise trade, which is important in the development of government regulation measures.

Current Trends in Global Engineered Wood Market

DOI: 10.24412/2072-8042-2024-2-78-86

Author: Larissa Viktorovna KRIVOKOCHENKO,
Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor , Department of International Trade and Foreign Trade of the RF , Professor

The article examines the global engineered wood market, in particular the segments of special forest products with unique structural and environmental properties. It is concluded that there are favorable prospects for the global engineered wood market, with the countries of the Asian region as the most dynamically developing regional markets. International statistics demonstrate Russia’s share in the international trade in engineered wood, which, as the author believes, is going to expand. Currently, further development of Russia’s exports of engineered wood represents an important direction for Russian timber exports.

The Reshaping of Global Value Chains as a Megatrend of Modern Globalization

DOI: 10.24412/2072-8042-2024-2-87-103

Author: Andrey Aleksandrovich MALTSEV,
Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor , Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the RAS, Leading Researcher

The article examines the role of global value chains (GVCs) as one of the most important actors of globalization. The contribution of GVCs to accelerating globalization in the 1980s-2000s is shown, with 80% of the increase in the share of world trade in global GDP from 13.7% in 1970 to 29.7% in 2018 due to the GVCs. The relationship between the deceleration of the globalization and the performance of GVCs is revealed, since the share of GVCs in world trade contracted from 52% in 2008 to 47% by 2015 being infl uenced by the natural limits of the growth of technological openness, increased global uncertainty and global polarization. Th e indirect export indicator demonstrates slowing exports within the GVCs. Based on GVC statistics, the average annual growth rate of indirect exports decreased from 9.7% in 2000-2010 to 3.7% in 2020-2019. It is assumed that the obvious slowbalization since the early 2020s is not the evidence of “running away” from globalization but is an indirect confi rmation of the current reshaping of the GVCs. The phenomenon of “factoryless manufacturing” as the result of the soaring knowledge intensity growth in the global economy in recent decades is highlighted as one of the most important manifestations of the current redesigning of the GVCs. Challenges for developed, emerging economies and the GVCs in the conditions of “newbalization” or globalization 3.0 propelled by information technologies in the 2010s-2020s, are specifi ed. Th e most important consequence of this transformation is the accelerated transition from cross-border movement of goods to “factories” crossing borders.

International trade

Th e Infl uence of Human Capital on the Position of Countries in Global Exports of High-Tech Products

DOI: 10.24412/2072-8042-2024-2-104-120

Authors: Tatyana Vasilyevna VORONINA,
Doctor of Sciences in Economics, Associate Professor , Southern Federal University, Faculty of Economics , Head of World Economy and International Relations Department

Rosa Gevorgovna GAMBARYAN,
Southern Federal University, Faculty of Economics , Postgraduate student of World Economy and International Relations Department

Based on the analysis of data on high-tech exports and indicators of human capital development, its diff erent role in developed and developing countries in the production of high-tech products is revealed. It is concluded that the leading position of developed countries in the global market for high-tech products is due to the high quality of intellectual capital, and in developing countries - the presence of a large amount of human capital. High-tech export production in developing countries is based on the relatively simple, labor-intensive assembly of imported components, typical for low-tech stages of production of high-tech products

Tribune of young scientists

Impact of Sanctions on Russia’s Oil Trade

DOI: 10.24412/2072-8042-2024-2-121-130

Author: Igor Vyacheslavovich GREBENNIKOV,
Russian Foreign Trade Academy, Postgraduate student of the Department of World and National Economy

The article discusses the sanctions imposed by the EU and G7 coalition countries in connection with the transactions with Russian crude oil and oil products in terms of its impact on Russian federal budget revenues. The price cap mechanism (price cap) introduced in December 2022 by the countries of the collective West was designed to limit Russian export earnings and hence the budget revenues from the sale of hydrocarbons. The price cap was not targeting a full embargo of Russian exports, since such embargo could increase the risks of the global energy crisis, and could negatively aff ect the European oil refi ning industry. During 2023 Russian oil companies used various schemes to minimize the impact of sanctions, including redirecting supplies to alternative and new markets, incorporating independent trading units in friendly jurisdictions, and using shadow fl eet to transport oil. The Russian Government introduced new tax measures, in particular, it has changed the methodology of oil price calculation for the purposes of the mineral extraction tax and export duty, introducing a fi xed maximum discount of Urals to Brent. However, the transaction costs of oil companies have increased signifi cantly due to the changes in supply chains and participation of new intermediaries in such transactions. Total losses of the state budget (hydrocarbons export revenue loss) for 2023 may be approximately up to 30% (compared to the 2022 level), according to various estimates. In conclusion, the article outlines an illustrative example of interaction between the government and oil companies within the framework of a distributional coalition, namely, a group of economic agents whose interests coincide under current sanctions. Th e maximum discount mechanism introduced by the Ministry of Finance to determine the price of Urals for tax purposes was aimed not only to increase the budget revenues, but also to urge oil companies not to sell below this price, otherwise they would pay more taxes. Such distribution of the sanctions burden between the companies and the budget, including possible affi liation of the companies with newly created intermediaries in the oil market, might be an interesting subject of research in modern new institutional economics.


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